Good Sunday to all of you out there! This blog comes a day later than normal, but that's because I spent yesterday enjoying Winter Jam 2014 with some great friends...... and because this is how I feel about forecasting Wintry Weather right now.
It almost seems like Old Man Winter has been terrorizing us with persistent cold and snow chances, and that's something that I will not stand for any longer. Former President Bush is with me on that one!
Nevertheless, this next winter weather threat is approaching fast, and I have some traveling to do today so I need to make this very quick.

First off, this won't be a full blown storm we are dealing with. May we all thank nature for that. But this little tantrum of her's will bring a round of snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the region tonight. I don't have time to create a map, but this one does some justice to what mine would look somewhat similar to.
Yeah, I know. It hurts, but at least that's inches and not feet. :)

It's anticipation of this that has prompted the Winter Weather Advisories through Monday morning for all of the areas you see shaded  in purple.
Right now this is rain, and I still have hope that rain takes over, but the expected arrival of wintry precip should be late afternoon, with the main show occurring into Monday morning..... therefore, I do believe snow days are a possibility. Unfortunately, given the warm ground and light nature of the precipitation, I can't be too certain. This is one of those things I simply have to play by ear. That being said, I have placed the Snowdayometer  at 50%, giving FCPS Students and Staff a MODERATE chance of a Snow Day!
Alright Gang, that's all for now.

I will try my best to bring twitter and text updates today, but I will be driving to Knoxville and then to Bowling Green..... so in other words, I have an evening of traveling to do. Stay tuned, and help me out, by tweeting me what's happening (weatherwise) where you are @ChrisReeceWX!

If you live in the following counties, you can receive direct text message weather updates and school closings from me to your phone through remind101. Simply follow the directions below.

Fayette County - Text "@drreec" to 859-447-9985

Jessamine County - Text "@jessa" to 859-447-9985

Madison County - Text "@madisonc" to 859-447-9985

Scott County - Text "@Scottco" to 859-447-9985

Woodford County - Text "@woodfo" to 859-447-9985

Warren County/WKU - Text "@drreece" to 859-447-9985
 
 
Good Saturday evening everyone! This is just a quick update to remind all of you to set those clocks an hour forward tonight, and to change the batteries in your smoke detectors as well.
In terms of weather, this is often a great time as we jump into an extended period of warm weather and life returning to the plants. What we shouldn't do, however, is spring forward into another snow chance, but that COULD be the case in our situation as we head towards the middle of the week. Many of the computer models are picking up on this system that would be a rain to snow maker, and for fun and giggles, here's what the GFS is putting out.
After seeing that, here's my reaction....
The good news, however, is that I don't buy that just yet. The track of the low is one that would normally be a rain maker around here, but a lot changes in 5 days, so we shall see. For those in the Northeast, this could be a March Nor'easter, but once again, we will see what happens in the coming days.

Enjoy your Sunday, and may we hope for all snow chances to go away. Those seniors around here have to graduate eventually. I'm just glad I'm out of those days!

As always, If anything changes, I'll be sure to send out a text ASAP, and if you have any questions or statements, feel free to comment on this post. I will also send updates via Twitter where you can follow me @ChrisReeceWX, and Facebook on the Chris Reece Weather Reports page. As well, the forecast team I lead at Foot's Forecast Central Kentucky will have updates. Feel free to like us and receive team coverage during significant weather events. Here's a link to our page. https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralkentucky

If you live in the following counties, you can receive direct text message weather updates and school closings from me to your phone through remind101. Simply follow the directions below.

Fayette County - Text "@drreec" to 859-447-9985

Jessamine County - Text "@jessa" to 859-447-9985

Madison County - Text "@madisonc" to 859-447-9985

Scott County - Text "@Scottco" to 859-447-9985

Woodford County - Text "@woodfo" to 859-447-9985

Warren County/WKU - Text "@drreece" to 859-447-9985
 
 
Good Tuesday everyone! The other day, I was talking about the possibility of a winter storm impacting the state, including Bowling Green, and brought you this meme to go with it. 
All winter, every significant winter storm that slammed the state only brought a cold rain to Bowling Green, with snow and ice only miles away. So watching the data suggest a winter storm hitting that area caused me to think, "Here we go again!". But after further review, a follow up meme has been created.
That's right! Once again, a winter storm hit the commonwealth, and fortunately, it was significant enough to burst the Bowling Green Bubble! Sleet and snow poured through the night and into the morning, not only granting us TWO snow days at the hill, but allowing us to enjoy scenes such as these.
We aren't called the Hilltoppers for nothing at WKU. Add snow and ice to that, and I think you know where things are going here.
You didn't even need much of a hill to slide down, as most side walks enabled my friend Connor to do this.
It's pretty wise to say, it was a very much enjoyed couple of days! Lexington even took a pretty hard hit, with several inches of snow and sleet, and with this being nothing new this winter, it left many of you shoveling driveways, and dealing with the other "not so fun" issues of wintry weather..... But I must give props to the one and only Meredith Scroggin, for her creative way to make shoveling the driveway entertaining.
Now, we move into a more calm period of mostly sunny days, at least through the weekend, and temperatures slowly moderating into the 50s for highs. Ahh... the taste of spring is SOOOOO near..... or is it?

Speaking of Spring, this upcoming weekend is when we Spring forward into daylight savings time. Now, hopefully that means spring like weather finally arrives too, because the last thing I want to do is spring myself into another period of winter storms and snow days.....

That brings me to the FCPS Snowdayometer......

I'm not there to see anything, but I've heard roads are in fairly good shape around town. I have placed the Snowdayometer at 40%, giving FCPS students and staff a MODERATE snow day chance.

Haha. Well gang, as you can tell, I'm very much overjoyed with my cold and snow. I just had to share it with you guys!I also want to make you all aware of a state wide tornado drill that will take place at 10:05AM EST tomorrow. Don't be alarmed, it's simply severe weather awareness week. Always have a plan in place for whatever weather may strike. Or, as local Bowling Green Meteorologist Chris Allen says, "Know the weather, before it knows you!"

That all I have guys! May your night be as lovely as this snowy Bowling Green sunset.

As always, If anything changes, I'll be sure to send out a text ASAP, and if you have any questions or statements, feel free to comment on this post. I will also send updates via Twitter where you can follow me @ChrisReeceWX, and Facebook on the Chris Reece Weather Reports page. As well, the forecast team I lead at Foot's Forecast Central Kentucky will have updates. Feel free to like us and receive team coverage during significant weather events. Here's a link to our page. https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralkentucky

If you live in the following counties, you can receive direct text message weather updates and school closings from me to your phone through remind101. Simply follow the directions below.

Fayette County - Text "@drreec" to 859-447-9985

Jessamine County - Text "@jessa" to 859-447-9985

Madison County - Text "@madisonc" to 859-447-9985

Scott County - Text "@Scottco" to 859-447-9985

Woodford County - Text "@woodfo" to 859-447-9985

Warren County/WKU - Text "@drreece" to 859-447-9985
 
 
Good evening. This winter storm is well underway, and the icing in Bowling Green is definitely taking place. In fact, the SPC has issued a Mesocale Discussion for heavy icing potential tonight.
Yeah. Some places are going to get ROCKED tonight. Here's the latest radar as well.
As you can see, there's a whole lot of this storm left to go. It's going to be a long night for yours truly.

Snow days are a given. I've even upped the Snowdayometer to 90%
Have a good one!
 
 
Hey guys,

I felt the need to drop in a quick update after my cousin Zac tweeted me this......
Love you Zac, but you're family, so I'll call you out publicly. <3 So much for a supportive family. :P

Zac isn't the only one thinking that though. I've seen many tweets and updates writing off this storm, however, the forecast is acting as planned.

Take a look at the map below. The white circled line is the rain and ice that came through this morning. The blue circled area is the lull we are in now that has everyone calling this a bust, when the worst was expected tonight and into tomorrow morning. The red circled area is what will deliver a powerful blow of ice, sleet, and snow tonight.
Don't be fooled, for the forecast remains on track. You can get those details on the blog post right below this one.

Take care!
 
 
I've never actually seen The Hunger Games, but it felt fitting as I'm certain it is a fight to the death for milk, bread, and generators across the region today. That comes as no surprise as the Major Winter Storm you've heard about for quite some time..... is now here.

The cold front that will help temperatures fall below freezing is already in western parts of the state, and temps will continue to crash from Northwest to Southeast during the day. Here are the temps as of 10:52 EST this morning.
That's interesting! I wonder what the radar looks like, also as of 10:52 this morning.
Oh man, I can go ahead and tell you, that's a lot of moisture streaming in and getting ready to overrun the cold air moving in. In fact, the frozen precipitation impacts will likely be felt over the next few hours, and carry you into Monday. Speaking of impacts, here are my final thoughts on what to expect by tomorrow afternoon.
And as we know all too well in Kentucky, with significant ice comes power outages. I have outlined the areas of concern for that.
Yes, all of us. However, the greatest concern will be in Southern and Western parts of the state.


So the important basics......

- Temperatures are crashing from Northwest to Southeast across the state.

- Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will take over, with significant accumulations.

- Travel is not advised after noon.

- Power Outages are possible, and very likely south and west.

- It will also be windy, with gusts up to 30mph.

- Be Prepared, Not Scared.



THE SNOWDAYOMETER!

Do I need to explain why? I'm pretty confident in many schools closing tomorrow, including Fayette County. I of course want to watch things unfold before jumping the gun, but I've gone ahead and placed the Snowdayometer at 80%, giving FCPS Students and Staff a HIGH chance of a snow day. 
A final call will likely be out in time.


So now I want to say this...... I'm ready for the storm, are you? If not, it's time to get there. Your time to prepare runs out right about now.


As always, If anything changes, I'll be sure to send out a text ASAP, and if you have any questions or statements, feel free to comment on this post. I will also send updates via Twitter where you can follow me @ChrisReeceWX, and Facebook on the Chris Reece Weather Reports page. As well, the forecast team I lead at Foot's Forecast Central Kentucky has declared WINTER STORM MODE, effective immediately. Feel free to like us and receive team coverage during significant weather events. Here's a link to our page. https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralkentucky

If you live in the following counties, you can receive direct text message weather updates and school closings from me to your phone through remind101. Simply follow the directions below.

Fayette County - Text "@drreec" to 859-447-9985

Jessamine County - Text "@jessa" to 859-447-9985

Madison County - Text "@madisonc" to 859-447-9985

Scott County - Text "@Scottco" to 859-447-9985

Woodford County - Text "@woodfo" to 859-447-9985

Warren County/WKU - Text "@drreece" to 859-447-998
5
 
 
First off, sorry this is so late. I spent the day in Nashville at a Severe Weather Awareness Day conference, and I'm just now getting around to the blog.

Well they say March comes in like a lamb, and it did....so we thought. Though today was rather calm, with the exception of clouds and a few morning showers, but a lion is prowling down on the region, and is ready to pounce tomorrow night and Monday.

This bad boy is a major winter storm that will deliver one heck of a blow of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. In my honest opinion, this is going to be downright UGLY, and will likely be the highest impact storm of the season, especially for the southern portions of the area.

Now I say that with a bit of risk. Every single winter storm this season, especially in Bowling Green, ended as a cold rain and a whole lot of nothing in terms of wintry weather, but for some reason..... I feel like this is the one, so I'm holding on to my winter weather forecasting faith on this.
I mean, it's possible to actually get something in Bowling Green this time. Weird things have happened. Come on, UK just LOST to South Carolina. Anything can happen, and anything, can be ice and snow falling from the skies over WKU. For the rest of the state, I'm pretty confident a hefty storm is on the way. Lexington, Louisville, and places in between, brace yourselves.....Bowling Green too. Special Shout Shout to my bud Connor Cygan for creating that one. He also has a nice blog, connorcyganweather.weebly.com.


So what are we expecting?

Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and a whole lot of it. In fact, I want you all to check out some of these outlooks from the WPC.

Snow
Significant ice probability of more than .25"
Not saying we will get that much, but it's certainly possible.

This graphic from the NWS in Louisville is pretty similar to my thinking. I personally think the southern zones are down played, and that .25"-1.00" inches of ice can be expected in the southern zones. Those totals could even be increased if the latest data continues to trend the way it has. We shall see about that.

None the less, Winter Storm and Ice Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for all the pinks and purples you see shaded on the map below.
- So breaking tomorrow down.

- The day will begin in the 40s. Scattered rain showers early.

- As we progress through the afternoon, the temperature drops, freezing rain and sleet take over.

- Into the evening and overnight hours, that transitions to heavy accumulating snow.


I want to make this clear. YOU NEED TO BE PREPARED NOW. Don't be scared, be prepared.

Alright. I love you guys, but it's been a long day. I'm going to enjoy some me time, and some friends, before another busy day tomorrow.


As always, If anything changes, I'll be sure to send out a text ASAP, and if you have any questions or statements, feel free to comment on this post. I will also send updates via Twitter where you can follow me @ChrisReeceWX, and Facebook on the Chris Reece Weather Reports page. As well, the forecast team I lead at Foot's Forecast Central Kentucky has declared WINTER STORM MODE, effective at 2PM tomorrow. Feel free to like us and receive team coverage during significant weather events. Here's a link to our page. https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralkentucky

If you live in the following counties, you can receive direct text message weather updates and school closings from me to your phone through remind101. Simply follow the directions below.

Fayette County - Text "@drreec" to 859-447-9985

Jessamine County - Text "@jessa" to 859-447-9985

Madison County - Text "@madisonc" to 859-447-9985

Scott County - Text "@Scottco" to 859-447-9985

Woodford County - Text "@woodfo" to 859-447-9985

Warren County/WKU - Text "@drreece" to 859-447-9985
 
 
Good Friday afternoon everyone! Though cold, it was a beautiful day around the commonwealth. I hope you enjoyed it, because there's a reason this blog post is here..... and it's not about warm weather.
So let's get started. First, tomorrow is March 1st, also known as the first day of Meteorological Spring, but there is nothing spring like about our next weather event coming into the picture as we go through the weekend and into next week. In fact, it seems like Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall have given way to Almost Winter, Winter, Still Winter, and the next season will be Road Construction......Lord knows it's needed around our region.

Unfortunately, that will not get better any time soon as yet ANOTHER Winter Storm looks to set aim on the region..... and it has all the potential to be a pretty nasty event around here.

Okay, is anyone else done with this? All this talk of cold as snow has me looking at Old Man Winter like.....
I mean, come on! I am ready for 70s, sunshine, flowers, all the wonderful things of Spring, except for wasps. They need to go.

So back to weather. As I mentioned, a winter storm has set aim on our region. Right now, our storm in question is swirling off the coast of California, bringing some MUCH needed rain to those areas. Unfortunately, it looks to be a lot at once. This storm system will then track through the southern Rockies, and into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Sunday night and into Monday. 
As far as who gets what and how much, that is nearly impossible to determine right now. But I can say, rain, ice, sleet, AND snow are all on the table, with significant amounts of each possible. In fact, take a look at some of the following model runs.

The NAM.
The GFS
Special thanks to WKYT's Chris Bailey for creating those three images. Though both of those models show different amounts, they show one common thing..... a major winter storm impacting the state Sunday and into Monday. My primary concern, is the threat for significant icing around here.

This has prompted WINTER STORM WATCHES for the ENTIRE state of Kentucky, and all of the other areas shaded in blue.
Now, it's still a bit too early for me to have details, but here's what I think we should expect.

- Saturday-Early Sunday, rain. Temps in the 40s and 50s.

- Sunday afternoon- evening, freezing rain and sleet takes over.

- Sunday night - Monday, wintry mix to all snow.

- Significant wintry accumulations possible, but how much and of what is to be determined.


- After the storm, some BRUTAL March cold sets into the region.


As we inch closer, hopefully the details will become more clear, and forecast confidence will increase. However, do not wait. Now is the time to prepare for significant winter weather. Better early than too late, that way Kentucky doesn't look like our southern neighbors should the storm verify.
Thankfully, I don't believe Michael Bay will be directing the winter storm this time. :P As well, realize that the interstate is not a shelter during icy weather. For some reason the south tends to think otherwise.

I will be sure to bring further updates as available. Tomorrow I may be slightly out of reach as I will be in Nashville at a Severe Weather Awareness Day conference, but I will certainly bring the latest as soon as I can.


As always, If anything changes, I'll be sure to send out a text ASAP, and if you have any questions or statements, feel free to comment on this post. I will also send updates via Twitter where you can follow me @ChrisReeceWX, and Facebook on the Chris Reece Weather Reports page. As well, the forecast team I lead at Foot's Forecast Central Kentucky is on standby for WINTER STORM MODE. Feel free to like us and receive team coverage during significant weather events. Here's a link to our page. https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralkentucky

If you live in the following counties, you can receive direct text message weather updates and school closings from me to your phone through remind101. Simply follow the directions below.

Fayette County - Text "@drreec" to 859-447-9985

Jessamine County - Text "@jessa" to 859-447-9985

Madison County - Text "@madisonc" to 859-447-9985

Scott County - Text "@Scottco" to 859-447-9985

Woodford County - Text "@woodfo" to 859-447-9985

Warren County/WKU - Text "@drreece" to 859-447-9985
 
 
Good Thursday afternoon! I wanted to go ahead and bring an update to the severe weather potential we have on our hands tonight. I need to hit the road soon, so I'm not going to waste much time. Here's what's going on.

I mentioned yesterday that the entire state was under a slight risk of severe weather. That has now been upgraded to a MODERATE RISK for a large portion of the state, and it includes Bowling Green, Louisville, and Lexington. Lexington is on the FAR northeastern fringe, but never the less, it's there.
This moderate risk is due to the increasing threat for damaging winds of 60-80 miles per hour. A small tornado threat does exist as well. Nothing should be major, but a few spin ups are possible. Heavy rain could also lead to FLASH FLOODING, which has prompted the Flash Flood Watch for the areas shaded in green.  Wind Advisories are the areas shaded in brown, and those wind advisories include the areas in green as well.
So let's break down our threats here. As mentioned, the main threat with these storms will be damaging winds. The pinkish hashed area is where that greatest threat is.
Beyond that, there is a spin up tornado threat as well.
As I mentioned yesterday, I'm most concerned about the falling tree threat. With a soaked, soggy, ground, and trees damaged from the recent ice storm, it will not take much at all to cause some pretty big tree issues.

I expect a squall line to move through Bowling Green and Louisville between 5 and 7, and Lexington around 10 o clock tonight, but some pretty strong storms may develop ahead of that. These will have the strongest potential to rotate and produce spin ups. The latest HHHR model shows this well.
So what about right now? Well our ingredients are coming together pretty well. Our warm front has lifted north, pumping moist and unstable air to the region, and our cold front is off to the west.
Don't just my arrow drawing skills. I'm in a rush! :P Anyways, that cold front will swing through here tonight, and the action should really get going. Let the games begin.


Alright. That's all I've got. I must now hit the road. #LexingtonBound

As always, If anything changes, I'll be sure to send out a text ASAP, and if you have any questions or statements, feel free to comment on this post. I will also send updates via Twitter where you can follow me @ChrisReeceWX, and Facebook on the Chris Reece Weather Reports page. As well, the forecast team I lead at Foot's Forecast Central Kentucky is on SEVERE WEATHER MODE. Feel free to like us and receive team coverage during significant weather events. Here's a link to our page. https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralkentucky

If you live in the following counties, you can receive direct text message weather updates and school closings from me to your phone through remind101. Simply follow the directions below.

Fayette County - Text "@drreec" to 859-447-9985

Jessamine County - Text "@jessa" to 859-447-9985

Madison County - Text "@madisonc" to 859-447-9985

Scott County - Text "@Scottco" to 859-447-9985

Woodford County - Text "@woodfo" to 859-447-9985

Warren County/WKU - Text "@drreece" to 859-447-9985
 
 
The weather loves to get active when I'm busy. I've got an exam tomorrow, a History essay to write tonight, and I need to pack for my trip to Lexington tomorrow,  but it doesn't stop me from bringing an update to the blog. Weather has always been my school work distraction, and THAT is ironic. I still need to get this stuff done, though, so let's get down to business.

First off, it was a downright GORGEOUS day all across the commonwealth. Once those clouds moved out, it was your typical picnic in the park kind of weather. It's just a shame that many of you were inside classrooms or offices for the majority of the day. Tomorrow will feature some pretty gorgeous moments as well, with many of us seeing highs better than 70 DEGREES. MAN! That is going to feel FANTASTIC, but it comes with a price as that will only add to the poison as a potent weather system prepares to deliver a Severe Weather Outbreak from the Ohio to Mississippi Valleys tomorrow evening. Western and West Central Kentucky, including Bowling Green and Louisville, will likely be in the bulls eye of the action, but Lexington doesn't look to have a walk in the park either.

So let's break this down. What exactly is going on to cause this?

We've got a low pressure system that's going to move through the plains towards the great lakes. As that takes place, this is going to swing a warm front through here tomorrow morning.
Now as that happens, a few showers and storms will likely develop, but that will be primarily overnight and in the early morning hours. Once that moves through, this opens the door for  a strong Southerly wind to pump WARM, MOIST, and UNSTABLE air off the Gulf of Mexico, and thus, placing some pretty nasty ingredients right over our area. That strong wind is no joke, and is responsible for the wind advisory in effect for all of the region.

For your day tomorrow, especially after the clouds clear from the early morning storms,
it's going to feel great, and maybe a little humid, but you will want to take advantage of it. Also, use it as your red flag, because it's February, not April.

Look what happens as we head into the evening.
A powerhouse cold front will be forcing that warm air to scoot over, and it will not have a nice way of doing so. It will be a loud, windy, and all out ugly exchange. A squall line of strong to severe storms will likely move through the region sometime between 6PM and 1AM. The Hi-Res NAM shows this well.
It is because of this that Storm Prediction Center has the entire state under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather tomorrow.
Of that risk, the greatest threat looks to be from just east of Interstate 75 to points west, and of that, the HIGHEST risk includes western portions of the state in the black hashed area. which includes Louisville and Bowling Green. That is also where the isolated tornado threat will be greatest as well.
Alright it's just a little rain and wind Chris. It's never hurt anybody.....

Yes it's rain and wind, but place those wind gusts at 60-80mph, combined with a soggy ground from heavy rain and melting snow, along with trees already damaged from ice storms, and you have a significant tree damage recipe, and that is what I'm most concerned about.

So let's gather this all together. What should you expect for Thursday?

- Heading out in the morning, a few clouds and storms may be around as a warm front movies through. Skies should clear out behind that, and a south wind will pump in warm and moist air as temps spike to the low to mid 70s. It will be VERY windy.

- By the afternoon, a cold front begins moving in from the west. As we get into the later parts of the evening, that cold air has a low exchange with the warmth in place. The main threats will be DAMAGING WINDS with gusts of 60-80mph, FLASH FLOODING, and ISOLATED TORNADOES. Now don't freak out at the word tornado. I'm not expecting a Moore, Oklahoma situation, but more so a brief spin up or two. Do, however, take the damaging wind threat seriously.

- As we head into Friday morning, cold air sinks in and winter begins to return after his brief vacation.


That's all I've got for now. I will bring updates as needed tomorrow, and I highly encourage you to stay aware of the latest forecasts.

As always, If anything changes, I'll be sure to send out a text ASAP, and if you have any questions or statements, feel free to comment on this post. I will also send updates via Twitter where you can follow me @ChrisReeceWX, and Facebook on the Chris Reece Weather Reports page. As well, the forecast team I lead at Foot's Forecast Central Kentucky is on SEVERE WEATHER MODE. Feel free to like us and receive team coverage during significant weather events. Here's a link to our page. https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralkentucky

If you live in the following counties, you can receive direct text message weather updates and school closings from me to your phone through remind101. Simply follow the directions below.

Fayette County - Text "@drreec" to 859-447-9985

Jessamine County - Text "@jessa" to 859-447-9985

Madison County - Text "@madisonc" to 859-447-9985

Scott County - Text "@Scottco" to 859-447-9985

Woodford County - Text "@woodfo" to 859-447-9985

Warren County/WKU - Text "@drreece" to 859-447-9985
 

    Mission 

    "No matter what I do, my biggest passion is to serve, and with weather, I get to do just that. I'm not just here to give the weather, I'm here to serve the community I love by not only giving a forecast, but alerting and protecting those who matter most. I consider everyone a member of my family, and just like a man protects his family, and will go to great lengths to stop ANYTHING from harming them, I'm the same when it comes to the weather. I'm going to do whatever it takes to keep you safe."