Good Monday to you all, and you may already notice some showers and storms around, especially in the northern regions of Kentucky and sinking southward. These will weaken, and eventually fizzle out, as the morning progresses. How much cloud cover that remains from these morning showers will have an impact on instability this afternoon, but it appears that enough should be left to support a line of strong and severe storms as a cold front approaches the region this afternoon.
With this in mind, the folks over at the Storm Prediction Center have placed the region in a SLIGHT RISK for the action slated to take place.
Let's go ahead and break down how I see things playing out.
- Showers and storms this morning will taper off.
- Humidity and some clouds will be left in their wake with highs in the upper 80s and dew points near 70.....oh yeah, it's going to be VERY muggy.
- The main cold front approaches this afternoon, and assuming the instability remains in place, redeveloping storms should congeal into a potent squall line that moves from NW to SE. It's then when the main threat of severe weather should occur.
For visualization, I think this timeline from the NAM is in good agreement with my thoughts.
So what are the main severe threats?
With any squall line set up, damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat in place. The amount of moisture in the atmosphere leads to the potential for heavy rains and flash flooding as well. I'm not too concerned about hail and tornadoes, but I wouldn't be surprised for isolated small hail or a brief spin up somewhere. Oh yeah, and with dew points where they are, you can bet the babies will be big time lightning and thunder producers.
I've thrown a lot at you, so I'll recap the basics of what to take away.
- Showers and storms this morning will fade as they sink south.
- Calm, yet warm and humid, conditions will remain in place afterwards.
- An approaching cold front this evening should spawn a squall line of strong and severe thunderstorms.
- The primary threats, in order, are - Damaging Winds
- Flash Flooding
- Brief Weak Tornado
Before I go, I'd also like to take a moment to say that this is the 7 year anniversary of my move to Kentucky. In light of that, I've made a short video to take a moment to say thank you putting up with 7 years of my crazy love for the atmosphere!
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